Lindy Effect
Table of Contents
Lindy Effect
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect
The Lindy effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of a non-perishable thing, like an idea or technology, is proportional to its current age. In other words, the longer something has been around, the longer it is expected to last. This concept, popularized by thinkers like Nassim Taleb, suggests a kind of “aging in reverse” where something that has survived a long time is likely to continue surviving.
How it works
- Longer life, longer future: The core principle is that if something has been around for a long time, it has proven its robustness against various challenges and is thus more likely to persist in the future. For example, a book that has been in print for 100 years is expected to be in print for another 100 years, while a book that has only been around for a year is expected to last for just one more year.
- Non-perishable items: The effect applies to non-perishable items, such as books, ideas, technologies, and even some traditions. It does not apply to perishable things like human lifespans, where the older you are, the less future life you have.
- A heuristic, not a law: The Lindy effect is considered a heuristic or a rule of thumb, not a perfect scientific law. Its applicability can vary depending on the item, but it’s a useful tool for thinking about the longevity of ideas and technologies.
Examples
- Books: A book that has been referenced and studied for decades is likely to remain relevant, while a new book with a short lifespan is less likely to have lasting value.
- Technology: Many technologies fade away, but some fundamental technologies, like a simple spoon, have been in use for thousands of years and are likely to continue to be used.
- Ideas: Ideas that have survived through centuries are considered more robust than fleeting, modern trends.
This video explains what the Lindy effect is and how it can be used to build a long-term strategy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_GFTatUTmK0&t=5s